May 19, 2023 – Economic News

• May 19, 2023
• realestate
• Business & Markets, Fed, Interest Rates, Politics & Economy, Rates, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance, Recession, World News, Your Real Estate Life

MBS OVERVIEW

4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 June Coupon is down -17 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.

There were no economic releases today.

The Talking Fed: Fed Chair Powell talked out of both sides of his mouth today, giving fuel to those that expect a pause and to those that expect a hike.

• Dovish: “The financial stability tools helped to calm conditions in the banking sector. Developments there, on the other hand, are contributing to tighter credit conditions and are likely to weigh on economic growth, hiring and inflation” and that “So as a result, our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals.”
• Hawkish: “We think that failure to get inflation down would, would not only prolong the pain but also increase ultimately the social costs of getting back to price stability, causing even greater harm to families and businesses, and we aim to avoid that by remaining steadfast in pursuit of our goals.”

New York Fed President John Williams said “Importantly, there is no evidence that the era of very low natural rates of interest has ended”

Central Bank Palooza: ECB President Christine LaGarde said “We have to really buckle up on achieving (CPI) 2% inflation goal”.

This morning and through the week the idea that the Fed would pause increasing rates at the June FOMC meeting waned. From a pause to no pause has helped increase rates through the week along with the debt ceiling impasse. That was this morning, the tide changed this afternoon. Powell gave a clear signal he is inclined to pause interest-rate increases next month, taking command of the policy debate after several officials suggested they would go along with another hike. “Having come this far, we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook to make careful assessments,” he said, reading from prepared notes to keep hiking. “We’ve come a long way in policy tightening and the stance of policy is restrictive and we face uncertainty about the lagged effects of our tightening so far and about the extent of credit tightening from recent banking stresses,”…. “Having come this far, we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook to make careful assessments,” he said, reading from prepared notes. So, all of the angst about another increase have gone up in a puff.

The initial reaction pulled the 10 down from 3.70% to 3.65% but it didn’t last long, the 10 went back to 3.70% and MBS prices although better than at 9:30 ending with not much improvement. On the debt ceiling, it will get done next week, what the agreement will look like isn’t more than a guess. There was some early optimism about progress in debt ceiling negotiations, but that narrative got spoiled by late morning reports of a stalemate in negotiations due to several differences between the two sides.

Next Week: Tuesday May HIS manufacturing and services sector indexes, April new home sales. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q1 GDP second reading, April pending home sales. Friday inflation data; April personal income and spending and the PCE, April durable goods orders, final May U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday treasury will sell 3s, 5s and 7s, respectively.

This week: The 10 year note increased 22 bps, MBS prices down 51 bp. The DJIA +126, NASDAQ +373, S&P +68. Crude oil +$1.67, gold -$40.00. The dollar increased 58 points, Bitcoin +728.

The week is ending with continued uncertainty, according to Powell there isn’t going to be another rate increase on June 14th, yet the trading since his comments still seeing a 30% chance of an increase. Powel’s comment that the Fed would pause next month had very little effect on rate markets.