Economic News

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 6.50% MBS 101.34 -21 bps

This week is all about the Fed.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at the October meeting. Markets have been led in that direction for some time, and Fed officials have not pushed back strongly against that expectation. Because of that, the hold itself may already be priced into the market. But that does not mean the meeting is unimportant. What matters most will be the Fed’s tone.

Markets will be listening closely for any comments about inflation, economic growth, the labor market, longer-term interest rates, and the Fed’s balance sheet. Any hint that the Fed is still concerned about inflation staying too high could pressure bonds and push rates higher. The opposite is true.

The Fed’s comments could be the spark that finally moves rates out of this sideways range.

We will also get an important inflation reading with the release of Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Core PCE is expected to come in around 3.3% year-over-year, which would be the hottest reading since July.

The key point is that markets are already expecting that number. So, the reaction will depend on whether the report comes in hotter or cooler than expected. Even a tenth of a percent in either direction could matter and cause rates to move.

That is why next week has the potential to be more active than this past week.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 10.30% chance of 0.25% raise at October 28th meeting.

Economic Calendar

Economic calendar — November 2–6, 2026

MONDAY 
Construction spending and ISM Manufacturing
7:00 AM PT — scheduled releases

TUESDAY 
JOLTS — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
7:00 AM PT — BLS

WEDNESDAY 
ADP employment report, international trade, and ISM Services
5:15 AM, 5:30 AM, and 7:00 AM PT, respectively

THURSDAY 
Productivity and Costs; weekly jobless claims
5:30 AM PT — scheduled releases

FRIDAY 
Employment Situation — October 2026
5:30 AM PT — Bureau of Labor Statistics