Economic News

Friday, May 15, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 99.66 -48 bps

Markets now shift their attention toward several important economic reports next week that could heavily influence both bonds and mortgage rates.

Housing data will provide another look into how consumers are responding to higher borrowing costs. With rates now back near recent highs, investors will be watching closely to see whether housing demand begins softening or remains resilient.

Consumer Sentiment will also be important as markets look for clues on how households are feeling about inflation, the economy, and future spending plans. If consumers begin growing more cautious, that could eventually slow economic growth and ease inflation pressures.

We’ll also receive the latest S&P Global PMI data, which gives an early snapshot of business activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors.

And finally, markets will pour over the FOMC Minutes from the April meeting for any additional insight into how concerned Fed officials remain about inflation and whether internal discussions are shifting toward keeping rates higher for longer under the incoming Warsh-led Fed.

Bottom line: Volatility remains elevated as markets continue balancing inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, oil prices, and a major transition at the Federal Reserve.

Fed Fund future are showing a 1.60% chance of 0.25% lower at june 17th meeting.

Economic Calendar

Monday – May 18
NAHB Housing Market Index
Treasury market positioning after recent employment data

Tuesday – May 19
Housing Starts
Building Permits
Industrial and construction activity data

Wednesday – May 20
FOMC Minutes Release
Markets looking for Federal Reserve direction and future rate guidance

Thursday – May 21
Weekly Jobless Claims
Existing Home Sales
Ongoing labor market review

Friday – May 22
PMI / Manufacturing sentiment
Consumer confidence positioning
Bond market reaction heading into Memorial Day week

Markets continue watching inflation, labor strength, housing activity, and Federal Reserve policy direction closely. Recent Fed commentary has indicated caution regarding future rate cuts amid inflation and economic uncertainty.