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Economic News

Friday, September 25, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 6.00% MBS 98.76 +48 bps

And there will be plenty for the markets to digest. Next week brings Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, ADP, ISM, the Jobs Report and Core PCE, a loaded calendar that should give us fresh information on employment, economic growth and inflation.

The labor market will be especially important. Between JOLTS, ADP and the Jobs Report, we’ll get a much better look at whether employment remains strong or is beginning to soften. ISM and Consumer Confidence will give us another read on the broader economy, while Core PCE, the Fed’s favored gauge of inflation, could jolt the markets.

Remember the lesson from this week: good news can be bad news for bonds. If the economy and labor market continue to run hot and inflation remains stubborn, bonds could remain under pressure. The opposite is true.

With the 10-year Treasury sitting around this critical 5% area, next week’s reports could be especially important for the direction of rates.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 71.20% chance of 0.25% raise at October 28th meeting.


Economic Calendar

The economic calendar is a good reminder that major financial decisions shouldn’t be based on one headline or one economic report.

Monday, Sept. 28
7:30 AM PT — Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Tuesday, Sept. 29
7:00 AM PT — JOLTS Job Openings
7:00 AM PT — Consumer Confidence
Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Wednesday, Sept. 30
5:30 AM PT — ADP Employment
5:30 AM PT — Third Estimate of Q2 GDP
5:30 AM PT — Personal Income & Outlays / PCE Inflation
Additional trade and economic data

Thursday, Oct. 1
5:30 AM PT — Initial Jobless Claims
7:00 AM PT — Construction Spending
7:00 AM PT — ISM Manufacturing

Friday, Oct. 2
5:30 AM PT — Employment Situation / Jobs Report
7:00 AM PT — Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders

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