Economic News

Friday, June 26, 2026

Static Quote FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 100.65 +19 bps

The upcoming week will be shortened by the Independence Day holiday, with the bond market closed Friday, July 3.

Despite the holiday schedule, it will be a busy week for economic data, highlighted by several key labor market reports:

• May JOLTS Job Openings
• June ADP Employment Report
• June ISM Manufacturing Index
• Weekly Jobless Claims
• June Consumer Confidence
• June Employment Report (released Thursday)

Notably absent from the calendar will be Federal Reserve speeches and Treasury auctions, allowing economic data to take center stage.

As always, labor market data remains one of the most important drivers of mortgage rates. We’ll be watching closely to see whether the recent trend toward lower rates can continue.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 35.40% chance of 0.25% raise at July 29th meeting.

Economic Calendar

Monday – Quiet Start

• No major economic releases

Talking points:

• Markets repositioning after prior week volatility
• Traders setting expectations ahead of labor data
• Light volume means increased sensitivity to headlines

Tuesday – Housing & Labor Signals

FHFA House Price Index

Explain:

• Tracks single-family home price changes
• Used to gauge housing strength and appreciation trends
• Important for long-term equity outlook and refinancing decisions

JOLTS Job Openings

Explain:

• Measures labor demand, not just unemployment
• High openings = strong labor market = potential inflation pressure
• Impacts Fed expectations indirectly

Wednesday – Growth & Manufacturing Signals

Construction Spending

• Residential + commercial activity
• Signals builder confidence and housing supply pipeline

ISM Manufacturing Index

• Broad economic health indicator
• Expansion vs contraction signal
• Can influence bond markets and mortgage-backed securities

Thursday – Employment Situation (Major Market Driver)

Explain importance clearly:

“This is one of the most important data releases of the month.”

Cover:

• Non-Farm Payrolls
• Unemployment Rate
• Average Hourly Earnings
• Manufacturing Payrolls

Market context:

• Early release due to July 4 holiday
• Volatility expected in bond markets
• Wage growth is closely watched for inflation pressure

Friday – Independence Day Observed Market Conditions

• Lower trading volume
• Early market closures
• Reduced liquidity can exaggerate price moves