Economic News

Friday, June 19, 2026

Thursday Market Close FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 100.14 +5 bps

Next week’s calendar features several events capable of moving markets, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE).

Core PCE measures inflation after removing food and energy prices and remains one of the Fed’s primary tools for evaluating underlying price pressures.

Also released alongside Core PCE is a measure receiving increased attention under Chairman Warsh: the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE.

Unlike Core PCE, which permanently excludes food and energy categories, the Trimmed Mean PCE removes the most extreme price increases and decreases each month regardless of category. Supporters argue this approach provides a cleaner view of underlying inflation trends by filtering out unusual price swings wherever they occur in the economy.

Warsh has frequently pointed to the Trimmed Mean measure as a useful way to identify persistent inflation pressures while avoiding distortions created by temporary spikes or collapses in individual components. Markets may pay closer attention to this release than they have historically as investors seek clues about how the new Fed leadership evaluates inflation risks.

In addition to the inflation data, Treasury auctions throughout the week will provide another test of investor demand for U.S. government debt. Strong auction demand would be supportive for bonds and mortgage rates, while weak demand could place upward pressure on yields.

For now, rates remain trapped between improving inflation signals and a still-resilient economy. As the conflict fades, oil retreats, and Warsh’s influence grows, the bond market’s focus shifts back where it belongs: inflation, growth, and the path of Federal Reserve policy.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 39.90% chance of 0.25% raise at July 29th meeting.

Economic Calendar

Monday – June 22, 2026
No Major U.S. Economic Releases Scheduled

Although the calendar is relatively quiet, markets will continue digesting the Federal Reserve’s June policy decision and the latest inflation data.

Market Focus

Investors will monitor:

• Treasury yields
• Mortgage-backed securities
• Oil prices
• Stock market performance
• Federal Reserve commentary

Mortgage Market Impact

Quiet economic calendars don’t necessarily produce quiet mortgage markets. Geopolitical developments, oil prices, and bond trading can all influence mortgage pricing throughout the day.

Tuesday – June 23, 2026
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
This regional survey measures manufacturing activity throughout the Fifth Federal Reserve District.

Economists use it to evaluate:

• Factory activity
• New orders
• Employment
• Business optimism
• Capital spending

Wednesday – June 24, 2026
Current Account Balance
8:30 AM ET
Measures America’s trade and investment flows with the rest of the world.

Although this report rarely moves mortgage markets by itself, economists monitor long-term trends in:

• Imports
• Exports
• Foreign investment
• Capital flows

New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
One of the week’s most important housing reports.

Measures newly constructed homes sold during May.

The report also includes:

• Median sales prices
• Regional activity
• Housing inventory
• Months of supply

Why Mortgage Professionals Watch

New home sales provide insight into:

• Builder confidence
• Consumer demand
• Housing affordability
• Inventory shortages
• Future construction activity

Federal Reserve Bank Stress Test Results
4:00 PM ET
The Federal Reserve will release the results of its annual stress tests for 32 of the nation’s largest banks.

These tests evaluate how banks would perform during a severe recession involving significant losses in commercial and residential real estate, unemployment, and market stress.

Thursday – June 25, 2026
This is the week’s biggest economic day.

Personal Income
8:30 AM ET
Measures changes in Americans’ income during May.

Higher income generally supports:

• Consumer spending
• Home buying
• Economic growth

Personal Spending
8:30 AM ET
Shows how much consumers are spending.

Since consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, this report receives significant attention.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation
8:30 AM ET
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Includes:

• Headline PCE
• Core PCE (excluding food and energy)Given the recent surge in both CPI and PPI inflation, this report will receive extraordinary attention from financial markets.

Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Measures new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers.

Includes:

• Aircraft
• Machinery
• Transportation equipment
• Industrial equipment

Strong durable goods orders often indicate:

• Business confidence
• Corporate investment
• Economic expansion

Third Estimate of First Quarter GDP
8:30 AM ET
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its third estimate of first-quarter economic growth.

Although this is generally a revision rather than new data, significant changes can still influence financial markets.

Economists watch for revisions involving:

• Consumer spending
• Business investment
• Government spending
• Inflation adjustments.