Economic News

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 99.37 +19 bps

This week’s calendar shifts into a much higher gear.

The biggest events will be the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Inflation remains front and center for consumers, markets, and new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. If inflation readings come in hotter than expected, expect talk of a potential September rate hike to quickly gain momentum. Cooler inflation numbers would have the opposite effect and likely support lower interest rates.

We’ll also receive Retail Sales, one of the best gauges of consumer health. Consumer spending represents roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. As long as consumers continue to spend, recession concerns remain difficult to justify.

Finally, Treasury auctions remain an important story. The continued supply of new government debt has become a headwind for long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates. Simply put, bonds dislike competing with more bonds. Until Washington makes meaningful progress reducing deficit spending, the bond market may continue demanding higher yields to absorb the growing supply of Treasury securities.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 41.70% chance of 0.25% raise at September 16th meeting.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

10:00 AM ET — Existing Home Sales
Impact: Moderate
Period: July
Estimate: 4.06M
Prior: 4.09M

July NFIB small business optimism index
3 year note auction Wednesday

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

8:30 AM ET — Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Impact: High
Period: July
Estimate: 0.0%
Prior: -0.4%

8:30 AM ET — Consumer Price Index (CPI), Year-over-Year
Impact: High
Period: YoY
Estimate: 3.4%
Prior: 3.5%

8:30 AM ET — Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Impact: High
Period: July
Estimate: 0.2%
Prior: 0.0%

8:30 AM ET — Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), Year-over-Year
Impact: High
Period: YoY
Estimate: 2.5%
Prior: 2.6%

July Treasury budget
MBA mortgage applications
10 year note auction

Thursday, August 13, 2026

8:30 AM ET — Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Impact: Moderate
Period: July
Estimate: 0.1%
Prior: 0.2%

8:30 AM ET — Initial Jobless Claims
Impact: Moderate
Period: Week Ending August 8
Estimate: N/A
Prior: N/A

8:30 AM ET — Producer Price Index (PPI)
Impact: Moderate
Period: July
Estimate: -0.1%
Prior: -0.3%

30 year bond auction

Friday, August 14, 2026

8:30 AM ET — Retail Sales
Impact: High
Period: July
Estimate: 0.5%
Prior: 0.2%

8:30 AM ET — Retail Sales ex-Auto
Impact: High
Period: July
Estimate: 0.1%
Prior: -0.2%

10:00 AM ET — Consumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan)
Impact: Moderate
Period: August
Estimate: 54.6
Prior: 55.2

Mortgage Market Takeaway

This is a particularly important week for mortgage rates, with CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday providing key inflation readings. The combination of inflation data, employment information, retail sales, and consumer sentiment could influence Treasury yields and, consequently, mortgage pricing.