Economic News

Friday, August 28, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 99.11 -24 bps

As we move closer to the September Fed meeting, attention now shifts directly toward the labor market side of the Fed’s mandate.

This week we’ll receive several important reports, including ADP, JOLTS and, of course, the official Jobs Report.

No single report will tell the entire story. But collectively, these numbers should give markets another important read on the direction and momentum of the labor market at a particularly important time.

And considering where bond prices are sitting technically, the timing couldn’t be much more interesting.

Markets will also continue digesting Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech from last Friday and determining what his message means for the path forward.

Put it all together and we have the ingredients for an important week: bond prices threatening a technical breakout, fresh labor market data arriving ahead of the September Fed meeting, and markets continuing to digest the message out of Jackson Hole.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 55.10% chance of 0.25% raise at September 16th meeting.

Economic Calendar

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Week of August 31 – September 4, 2026

A busy week of economic data could have a significant impact on financial markets, Treasury yields and mortgage rates. Investors will be watching manufacturing activity, job openings, private-sector employment, services activity and, most importantly, Friday’s August Employment Report for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.

MONDAY
No major U.S. economic reports are scheduled.

TUESDAY
10:00 AM ET – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – July
10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI – August
10:00 AM ET – U.S. Manufacturing PMI – August
10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending – July

The JOLTS report provides another look at labor-market demand, while the manufacturing reports provide insight into business activity and economic growth. Construction spending is particularly relevant to the housing and real estate sectors.

WEDNESDAY
8:15 AM ET – ADP National Employment Report – August
10:00 AM ET – Factory Orders – July
Federal Reserve Beige Book

The ADP report provides an early indication of private-sector employment trends ahead of Friday’s official government employment report. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book provides anecdotal information about economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.

THURSDAY
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET – U.S. Trade Balance – July
8:30 AM ET – Productivity and Costs – Q2 2026, Revised
10:00 AM ET – ISM Services PMI – August
Weekly Economic Index

Thursday’s data will provide additional information about employment, productivity, economic activity and the health of the services sector.

FRIDAY
8:30 AM ET – Employment Situation – August
8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate
8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings

Friday’s Employment Report is the week’s most important economic release. Financial markets will closely examine job creation, unemployment and wage growth for indications about the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.

MORTGAGE RATE WATCH

The August employment report could create significant volatility in Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

A weaker-than-expected labor report could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and potentially put downward pressure on bond yields and mortgage rates.

A stronger-than-expected report, particularly if accompanied by stronger wage growth, could increase concerns about inflation and potentially push Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher.