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Friday, March 6, 2026
Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 101.22 +0 bps
Next week brings a heavy slate of economic data that could influence rate cut expectations ahead of the March Federal Reserve meeting on March 18. Markets will be focused on February CPI, January Core PCE, and January JOLTS job openings. These key reports provide insight into inflation and labor demand, both part of the Fed’s dual mandate of “promoting maximum employment” and “maintaining price stability”.
We’ll also see the second estimate of Q4 GDP, additional housing data, and Treasury auctions for 3, 10, and 30-year debt, which can cause volatility in rates.
One final note: Fed officials enter their communications blackout period or “quiet period” after Friday March 6. This means they do not discuss monetary policy, leaving the upcoming data as the primary driver of expectations.
Remember: the bond market is forward-looking. It will begin pricing a return to normal conditions well before those conditions arrive.
Next Fed move of 0.25% presently stands at 3.00% for March 18th.
New Fed Chair Announced (May) – Kevin Warsh
Economic Calendar
This is a heavy data week.
Monday
• Wholesale Inventories
• Consumer Credit
Tuesday
• NFIB Small Business Optimism
• 3-Year Treasury Auction
Treasury auctions directly impact bond yields. Weak demand = higher yields = upward rate pressure.
Wednesday — CPI (Major Event)
Consumer Price Index — headline and core.
Hotter inflation → bond yields likely rise.
Cooler inflation → rates may improve.
Mortgage markets react within minutes.
Thursday
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Producer Price Index (PPI)
• 30-Year Treasury Auction
PPI often signals future CPI movement.
Friday
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• Inflation Expectations component
Forward-looking expectations strongly influence long-term mortgage pricing.
Jim McKinley money@moneywithjim.orgFor first- Read More
Michael Harris / unitedforloans.comI speak wi Read More
800.230.0168 Company805.530.1199 Direct Line to CE Read More
March 7th and March 8th Weekend Spring Forward I Read More
Renting may seem convenient, but in the long run, you’re paying someone else’s mortgage instead of building your own equity. It’s time to take control of your financial future by investing in your own home or commercial property. Your Real Estate Life is your trusted resource for navigating the path to property ownership with confidence.
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✔ Interest rates and economic trends
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With over 38 years of experience in mortgage lending, Michael A. Harris is the President & CEO of United Mortgage Corporation of America. He has helped countless individuals save money, eliminate mortgage debt faster, and achieve financial independence. As a Senior Director and Certified Field Trainer at United Financial Freedom, Michael is dedicated to guiding families toward a debt-free life.
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Your Real Estate Life with Mike Harris
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