Economic News

Friday, October 16, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 6.50% MBS 101.05 -17 bps

Next week will be a lighter news week in the run-up to the next Fed meeting, which takes place October 27 & 28. With the Fed still weighing sticky inflation against signs that higher rates are starting to bite, markets will remain sensitive to anything that shifts expectations for another rate hike.

Housing will be in focus with reports on builder confidence, housing starts, building permits, and pending home sales. With mortgage rates near the highest levels of the year, signs of further slowing housing activity could help bonds improve.

The labor market is not as important to the Fed as inflation right now, but it is still something to keep on your radar. We will get initial jobless claims on Thursday, and claims are currently running near a four-decade low. A meaningful move higher would suggest the labor market is softening, while another very low reading would show employers are still reluctant to lay off workers.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 16.10% chance of 0.25% raise at October 28th meeting.

Economic Calendar

October 19–23, 2026

MONDAY, OCTOBER 19
• No major U.S. economic releases scheduled.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 20
• 5:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (September)
• 7:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (September)

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21
• 7:00 AM — Weekly Mortgage Market Watch: Monitor rate and market developments.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22
• 5:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims
• 7:00 AM — Leading Economic Indicators (September)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23
• 7:00 AM — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, October)

MORTGAGE MARKET WATCH: Monitor Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and economic data for potential impacts on mortgage-backed securities and daily mortgage rates.

What does it mean for mortgages?
Don’t try to predict mortgage rates from one report. Inflation, employment, economic growth, Treasury markets and expectations for Federal Reserve policy all play a role.