Economic News

Saturday, September 19, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 6.00% MBS 99.56 -36 bps

After a busy stretch of economic news and the Fed meeting, next week’s economic calendar is relatively lean. We will get New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Sentiment.

With Warsh highlighting accelerating economic growth, the incoming economic data will continue to be viewed through that lens. Stronger-than-expected numbers could reinforce the growth story, while softer data could give the bond market some relief. But economic reports will not be the only thing to watch. The Treasury will also be back in the market with auctions of 2-year, 5-year and 7-year Notes.

With Treasury yields at these elevated levels, demand for the new supply could be very telling. With the 10-year battling around the critical 5.00% level, Treasury auction demand may become just as important as the economic reports themselves.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 57.40% chance of 0.25% raise at October 28th meeting.

Economic Calendar

The economic calendar is a good reminder that major financial decisions shouldn’t be based on one headline or one economic report.

MONDAY, SEPT. 21
No major U.S. releases. Markets can still move based on expectations, global events, Treasury markets, inflation, employment, and Fed policy.

TUESDAY, SEPT. 22
7:00 AM PT — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Provides another look at manufacturing and business conditions.

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 23
7:45 AM PT — S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI
An early look at manufacturing and services activity and the strength of the economy.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 24
5:30 AM PT — Initial Jobless Claims — a weekly look at labor-market conditions.
7:00 AM PT — New Home Sales — particularly relevant to housing demand and activity.
U.S. Current Account also released.

Remember, housing is influenced by more than mortgage rates: supply, demand, affordability, inventory, employment, consumer confidence, and the overall economy all matter.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 25
5:30 AM PT — Advance Durable Goods Orders — a look at manufacturing and business demand.
7:00 AM PT — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Final September Reading — provides a final look at consumer attitudes.

Bottom line: Watch the overall economic picture, not just one number or headline.