For the week of June 8, 2026 — Vol. 24, Issue 23

A Look Into the Markets

“Someone told me long ago, there’s a calm before the storm. I know, it’s been comin’ for some time.” Have you ever seen the rain by Creedence Clearwater.

Interest rates moved slightly higher this past week as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continued to influence global markets. While the move in rates was relatively modest, investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the strength of the U.S. economy. Let’s look at what happened and what could be in store for markets in the week ahead.

Oil Still Elevated

Oil prices remained volatile this week as headlines from Iran and the broader Middle East continued to move markets. Each new development sparked fresh swings as traders assessed the risk of supply disruptions. Despite the day-to-day volatility, oil has stayed near $90 per barrel.

Elevated energy prices create challenges for the inflation outlook because higher fuel and transportation costs tend to work their way through the economy. When inflation pressures remain elevated, bond investors typically demand higher yields to compensate for the loss of purchasing power over time. That is one reason why long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, have remained stubbornly elevated.

Labor Market Resilience

As we often say, “Jobs Buy Homes.” With that quote in mind, it was encouraging to see continued resilience in the labor market this week.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed more available jobs than economists had anticipated, suggesting employers are still looking to hire. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Report, which measures private-sector hiring, also came in stronger than expected.

Taken together, these reports reinforce the view that the labor market remains on solid footing. A healthy labor market supports consumer spending, household formation, and housing demand. While strong employment can sometimes keep inflation pressures elevated, it also provides an important foundation for the economy. For housing, continued job growth remains one of the most important ingredients for long-term stability and future homeownership demand.

Trend Remains Your Friend

A couple of weeks ago, we shared an interesting historical trend involving the 10-Year Treasury Note.

Over nearly two decades, whenever the 10-Year Treasury yield has moved above 4.60%, it has failed to remain at or above that level three months later. Two weeks ago, the 10-Year Treasury briefly touched 4.70%, raising concerns that rates could continue climbing. Since then, however, yields have edged lower and currently sit beneath 4.50%.

While history never guarantees future results, this remains a hopeful development for interest rates. If this historical pattern continues to hold, it suggests that the recent move higher may ultimately prove to be the peak in rates for this cycle. The coming weeks will provide additional clues as markets continue to evaluate inflation, economic growth, and Federal Reserve policy.

30-Year Mortgage Rates and 10-Year Note

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac daily average, June 4, 2026)

• Rate: ~6.48% (current average 30-year fixed rate)
• Change from Previous Week: down from ~6.53% (week ended May 28, 2026)
• Change Year-over-Year: down from ~6.85% on June 5, 2025 (Freddie Mac)

10-Year Treasury Note Yield (daily close, June 4, 2026)

• Yield: ~4.45%
• Change from Previous Week: unchanged from ~4.45% (week ended May 28, 2026)

Change Year-over-Year: up from ~4.37% on June 4, 2025

Economic Calendar

Each candle represents one day of trading. As mortgage bonds prices move higher, rates move lower. You can see on the right side of the chart, how mortgage bond prices have improved from the worst levels of the year seen a couple of weeks ago.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.50% Mortgage Bond (Friday, June 5, 2026)

Looking Ahead

Next week brings several important economic reports that could influence mortgage rates and broader financial markets.

Inflation data will take center stage with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release. With inflation remaining one of the market’s primary concerns, investors will be closely watching these reports for signs that price pressures are either easing or reaccelerating. Any meaningful surprise could generate significant movement in both bond markets and mortgage rates.

We’ll also receive updates on housing activity and consumer sentiment. Housing data will provide additional insight into buyer demand and market conditions, while consumer sentiment offers a valuable look into how households are feeling about the economy and their financial outlook. Together, these reports should help shape expectations for rates as we move deeper into the summer.

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 8 – 12

The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.