Category: Interest Rates

• December 17, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets today either similar or just slightly worse than yesterday, and reprice risk on the day is moderate. The tea leaves are pointing to this rally being at the end of its leash for now, and I stand by yesterday’s suggestion to lock any loans that are closing in the next 30 days or

• December 14, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Christmas came early for rate sheets today, with the best pricing we’ve seen in months. Base conventional conforming rates breaking below 7% (national rate avg using Mortgage News Daily as a reference point) after yesterday’s Fed meeting delivered. Reprice risk today is moderate, bonds started out really strong but lost ground early on strong retail

• December 13, 2023
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• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 101.45 (+66 bps)10yr yield 4.02 Despite labor market and inflation data, the Fed gave its clearest signal yet that it is done hiking rates, with Powell saying as much (but still leaving himself an out). Markets now pricing in 65% chance of cut in March, helping rates improve. Tough to expect more improvement

• December 12, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning should be similar or just a smidge better than yesterday, as this morning’s inflation data comes in exactly at expectations. However, coming in at expectations is not enough to spark a rally and see better pricing. Reprice risk on the day is low, bonds aren’t likely to start selling off, but

• December 11, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning will be similar to Friday and maybe a bit better for some. Reprice risk on the day is low, although we will see a 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm Eastern today. It is tomorrow’s CPI inflation data and Wednesday’s Fed meeting that will decide the near future of rates. The outlook

• December 9, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 100.72 (-13bps)10yr yield 4.23 Although this mornings jobs data was a bust for better rates, it didn’t hurt things much. There is still hope that next weeks inflation data and Fed meeting could see rates move a bit lower, but this is the first sign that we may see this rally losing steam.

• December 7, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning likely to be similar to yesterday, despite the gains bonds made through the day on Wednesday, losing ground this morning to a cry of “Godzilla!!!” as Japan unleashed a different monster that stomped on bonds. Not anything to get worked up about though, just that the yen surged as speculation grew

• December 6, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning likely to be similar to yesterday, which is to say some of the best pricing we’ve seen in months. However, we could see rates improve further over the coming days, as global markets bet on central banks cutting rates sooner than was expected a few months ago. Reprice risk on the

• December 5, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 100.80 (+20bps)10yr yield 4.17 Markets betting hard now that the Fed will cut rates by March, pushing yields lower and driving mortgage rates down as weaker JOLTS data today contributed to speculation that the labor market is cooling after running red hot the last couple of years. The big moves though still to

• December 4, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning will be better than Friday’s rate sheet, more in line with any reprices better you got on Friday. Reprice risk today is low, but remember that tomorrow morning brings JOLTS data as well as some ISM data that could shake things up. However, my current “guess” is that rates will improve this