April 21, 2023 – Economic News

• April 21, 2023
• realestate
• Business & Markets, Fed, Interest Rates, Politics & Economy, Rates, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance, Recession, World News, Your Real Estate Life

MBS OVERVIEW

4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 May Coupon is down -3 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.

Rosie the Riveter: April Flash S&P Marit PMIs were stronger than expected. The Manufacturing PMI was 50.4 vs. est. of 49.0 and the Services PMI were 53.7 vs. est. of 51.5

The 10 dropped to 3.50% early this morning, lost all sellers and the rate increased to 3.57% and sat there the remainder of the day. The weekend, technical factors and the stronger than expected April PMI data this morning wrapped up a week that saw interest rates little changed from last Friday. It was a technical week more than any fundamental changes. The Fed will increase the FF rate on the 3rd of May, a week from this coming Wednesday. Rate hike expectations climbed a bit this week with the implied likelihood of a 25-bps increase in May climbing to 85.4% from 78.0% a week ago. The Fed won’t have much influence next week with officials on a self-imposed quiet period ahead of the FOMC. We don’t normally pay much attention to the 200-day average on the 10, our work is directed to short term movements, the 200 at 3.52% broke early today when the 10 fell to 3.50%; investors not ready to sell at that extreme with the FOMC on the horizon.

Next Week: Nothing on Monday. Tuesday $42B 2 year note auction, Feb Case/Shiller home price index, April consumer confidence, March new home sales. Wednesday $43B 5 year note auction, weekly MBA mortgage apps, March durable goods orders. Thursday $35B 7 year note auction, Q1 advance GDP, weekly jobless claims, March pending home sales. Friday March personal income and spending, PCE inflation, April Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, U. of Michigan final April consumer sentiment.

This week: The 10 year note yield increased 5 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon this week down 12 bps in price. The DJIA -77, NASDAQ -51, S&P -4. Crude oil fell $4.85% on concerns of slowing demand. Gold fell $27.00 with the dollar fractionally better, The dollar index +0.18 at 101.75. Bitcoin, after a strong day a week ago dropped 3,002 points this week.