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Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 May Coupon is up +17 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.
Taking it to the House: March Existing Home Sales were 4.44M units on an annualized basis, vs. est. of 4.500M
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were a smidge higher than expected, 245K vs. est. of 240K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average ticked lower (thanks to prior seasonal adjustments) to 239,750. Continuing Claims were higher (worse) than expected, 1.865M vs. est. of 1.820M
Rosie the Riveter: The April Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was horrific, dropping to -31.3 vs. est. of -19.2 and is a very strong indicator of a recession.
Leading Indicators: The March data was 3x worse than expected, dropping by -1.2% vs. est. of -0.4%
On Deck for Tomorrow: There are no economic releases this Friday
A nice technical move today, just as it was supposed to do according to our work.3.64% stopped the increase yesterday, the level tested three times during the day yesterday. It isn’t a change in the overall direction, just a breather. That said we don’t expect interest rates will change in any significant way until the FOMC meeting in 10 days. Markets driven daily on what Fed officials say, after tomorrow and through next week the Fed officials will do a Rip Van Winkle until the meeting.
Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. Sales declined 22.0% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price dipped 0.9% from the previous year to $375,700.The inventory of unsold existing homes rose 1.0% from the prior month to 980,000 at the end of March, or the equivalent of 2.6 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 980,000 units, up 1.0% from February and 5.4% from one year ago (930,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from February but up from 2.0 months in March 2022. Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days in March, down from 34 days in February but up from 17 days in March 2022. Sixty-five percent of homes sold in March were on the market for less than a month. First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in March, up from 27% in February but down from 30% in March 2022. NAR’s 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in November 20224 – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 26%, the lowest since NAR began tracking the data. All-cash sales accounted for 27% of transactions in March, down from 28% in February and one year ago.
Tomorrow March Flash PMI data, the manufacturing index 49.2, services 52.5.
The 10 and MBSs should add a little to today’s improvements. We look for the 10 to slip back to 3.50% from 3.54% today. It is a high-risk trade since interest rates have had no real change in over a month. Since morning pricing at 9:30 neither the 10 or MBSs have changed.
