September 19, 2023 – Rate Commentary

• September 19, 2023
• realestate
• Business & Markets, Fed, Interest Rates, Politics & Economy, Rates, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance, Recession, World News, Your Real Estate Life

Rate sheets this morning likely to show pricing similar to yesterday’s open, and worse than the many reprices better that we saw yesterday. Reprice risk on the day is low, we could see some recovery in bonds that would help some lenders issue better pricing as the day goes one (like we saw yesterday) but overall the moves are not that big either way. Markets are waiting to see what tomorrow brings with the Fed fireworks.

This week all talk will circle around the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, which includes an updated dot plot and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. On Thursday we’ll also see some early moves in bonds when the Bank of England meets, but that isn’t something we really need to make any adjustments for. We are also starting to see the usual government shutdown headlines, but that won’t affect mortgage rates this week.

Although I’m still in a locking bias, if you have loans floating at this point we might as well see what tomorrow brings. I believe that rates will creep higher in the days after the Fed meeting, but without a crystal ball I could be wrong.

Technicals:

The UMBS 6.0 coupon is at 99.70, -13bps on the day but better than yesterday.

The 10yr Treasury yield at 4.34, and will likely hold at this technical support level until we see which way markets want to make a break after tomorrow’s Fed action.