March 17, 2023 – Economic News

• March 17, 2023
• realestate
• Business & Markets, Fed, Interest Rates, Politics & Economy, Rates, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance, Recession, World News, Your Real Estate Life

MBS OVERVIEW

4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 April Coupon is up +10 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.

Rosie the Riveter: February Industrial Production was weaker than estimates, flat at 0.0% vs. est. of 0.2% but January was revised higher from 0.0% to 0.3%. Capacity Utilization was 78.0% vs. est. of 78.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The March Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey moved lower from 67.0 down to 63.4 which was well below expectations of 67. 85% of the survey interviews were conducted prior to the recent banking crisis.

LEI: The Conference Board’s March Leading Economic Indicators were -0.3% vs. est. of -0.2% and is down -3.6% over the past 6 months which portends a major economic slowdown and or recession.

Central Bank Palooza: The Peoples Bank of China surprised by announcing an unexpected cut to the amount that banks set aside for deposits by 25 basis points which is expected to inject 500 billion Yuan ($72.6 billion) worth of liquidity into the market.

The Running Man: SVB Bank official filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. On the flip side, First Republic Bank received unprecedented support as several Big Banks (Chase, Goldman, Wells, PNC, Citi, etc.) announced that they would deposit $30B in deposits into the bank but shares still fell over 20%. Credit Suisse resumed their free-fall after several banks curbed trading with them and the deposit run continued.

Yesterday and over the last few days the 10 year held 3.40%, it increased to close at 3.57%, today it tried once again, falling to 3.40% at 3 PM ET (see below for 4 pm level). The bank issues still boiling, although no new banks in the headlines. First Republic rattling regional banks. A report on major banks putting restrictions on trading with Credit Suisse adding to the wild week.

The wobbly consensus now is 25 bp increase from the FOMC next week. The Wall Street Journal’s Fed insider said during a CNBC appearance that the decision will hinge on financial stability and performance of capital markets over the next few days. The fed funds futures market, meanwhile, still sees a 65.7% implied likelihood of a 25-bps increase.

Next Week’s Calendar: Tuesday Feb existing home sales, FOMC begins. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps, FOMC po0licy statement and Powell’s press conference. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Feb new home sales. Friday Feb durable goods orders, March Markit PMI manufacturing index and its Services index.

This Week: Attention to the changes, this week has been very volatile in many markets. The 10 year note yield down 28 bps, the 2 year note down 76 b ps. For all the interday swings, the stock indexes ended the week generally unchanged, the DJIA -48, NASDAQ +392, S&P +55. The dollar index declined 0.78 a big move. Crude oil -$10.24, Gold increased $111.00.

Today, a good day to buy insurance for the weekend, buying treasuries. Last weekend the banking problems began over the weekend. The trade, if no new issues occur, won’t cost much if at all, compared to what occurred last Monday.