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Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
Inflation Nation: We have a mixed bag of inflationary data today. Headline PCE YOY was hotter than expected, 5.5% vs. est. of 5.3%, plus October was revised higher to 6.1%. MOM, PCE was much less than expected, up only 0.1% vs. est. of 0.3% however some of that miss is due to an upper revision to Oct to 0.4%. Core (ex food and energy) YOY was up 4.7% which matched expectations but lower than October’s pace of 5.0%. MOM, It was up 0.2% vs. est. of 0.2% and October was revised higher to 0.3%
The Consumer: November Personal Incomes were twice as high as expected (0.4% vs. est. of 0.2%) But Personal Spending was up 0.1% vs. est. of 0.2% and a big fall off from October’s upwardly revised 0.9%. The final December UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward from 59.1 to 59.7, the 5 year inflation expectations moved from 3.0% to 2.9%
Manufacturing: November headline Durable Goods Orders tanked, down -2.1% vs. est. of -0.6%. Ex Transportation it was up 0.2% vs. est. of 0.0%.
Taking it to the House: November New Home Sales were higher than expected 640K vs. est. 600K
Nov personal income expected +0.3% increased 0.4%, personal spending expected +0.2% increased 0.1%. The key PCE inflation m/m expected +0.2% increased 0.1%, yr./yr. +5.5% as expected and down from +6.0% in October. Core PCE m/m +0.2% as forecasts, yr./yr. 4.7% against 4.6% expectations and down from 6.1% in October. Inflation readings continue to slow, inflation has cooled but not yet enough to change the Fed’s mind about more rate increases in early 2023. Yesterday Q3 GDP final was much stronger than the preliminary reading at 2.9%, the final GDP +3.2%. The consumer still spending, Q3 on the plus side after two quarters of declining growth. Not so fast though, Nov retail sales slowed substantially, down 0.6%, so we are left with more uncertainty. Wage growth is slowing, low wage earners being run over by inflation. The Fed is focused on wages now, looking for slowing that would slow inflation.
November Durable Goods orders declined 2.1% against forecasts of -0.8%; excluding transportation orders expected 0.0% increased 0.2%.
At 10 am Nov new home sales, expected at 600K units increased 640Kbut October revised lower to 605K from 632K. The U. of Michigan final Dec consumer sentiment index expected at 59.1, increased to 59.6.
Sam Bankman-Fried was released on a $250 million bail package — which includes a personal recognizance bond secured by his parents’ house in California — after making his first US court appearance to face fraud charges over the collapse of FTX. Federal prosecutor Nicholas Roos said is one of the largest pretrial bonds in US history, and its size will “severely restrict” Bankman-Fried’s movement. His bond must be signed by his parents and two other people with “considerable” assets by Jan. 5.
Don’t know where everyone lives but here in the mid-west it is extremely cold, woke up today at -9 temps, wind chill -30. Seems every holiday weather disrupts travel, thousands of flights cancelled, highways closed.
The bond and mortgage markets will close today at 2 pm, other markets open the usual times. All markets closed on Monday celebrating Christmas.
