• November 7, 2022
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Powell doesn’t see wage-price spiral or evidence of softening in labor market Fed Chair Jerome Powell says it will take some time for inflation to come down. Powell said the labor market remains out of balance with demand exceeding supply and households still having cash saved up from the COVID-19 pandemic. “The broader picture is

• October 30, 2022
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U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in September, while underlying inflation pressures continued to bubble, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time this year. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department

• October 27, 2022
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The U.S. economy rebounded over the summer after shrinking for the first six months of the year, but the rebound does little to allay fears that the world’s largest economy is headed toward a recession as it confronts painfully high inflation and rising interest rates. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services

• November 4, 2022
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The average mortgage rate should be around 6% today and not 7% if the normal spread is applied. A monthly mortgage payment of $1,799 versus $1,996 on a $300,000 loan. Historically the spread between 10-year Treasury bond yields and 30-year mortgage is 170 basis points. Today it is over 300 basis points. The only other

• August 9, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 5.5: 99.08 (+11bps)10yr yield: 4.01CPI data at 8:30am ET tomorrow. Markets expect higher number than June, so unless MUCH higher I don’t think way we will see too much of a negative response but there is definitely a possibility. If shelter costs and core CPI show more improvement than expected we could see

• August 8, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 5.5: 98.73 (-16bps)10yr yield: 4.03 Mtg bonds bouncing around through the day, but not enough to see lenders reprice worse. Not a lot of risk floating into tomorrow. Rates sheets this morning will improve, and reprice risk on the day is low. Bonds here and abroad got a big boost overnight from soft