April 7, 2023 – Economic News

• April 7, 2023
• realestate
• Business & Markets, Fed, Interest Rates, Politics & Economy, Rates, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance, Recession, World News, Your Real Estate Life

MBS OVERVIEW

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its BIG JOBS Friday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is the Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

March Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) 236K vs. est. of 240K

February NFP revised from 311K to 326K

January NFP revised from 504K to 472K

The rolling three month average is now 345

Wages:

The Average Hourly Earnings Rate for all employees rose by 9 cents to $33.18

MOM Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3% vs. est. of 0.3%

YOY Average Hourly Earnings increased by 4.2% vs. est. of 4.3%

Unemployment:

The headline Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5% vs. est. of 3.6%

The U6 Underemployment Rate dropped to 6.7% vs. est. of 6.7%

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.6% vs. est. of 62.4%

The 10 year note ended 3.40% +10 bps. MBS prices crumbled, down 44 bps. All week the markets were fixated on a weakening job market and the idea the Fed would hold pat at the next FOMC meting May 3rd. The March employment data today didn’t follow the script and rates increased in a short session and into the weekend; the cash stock market didn’t trade, just a short futures session before ending at 9:15 am ET.

Next Week: Monday Feb wholesale inventories. Tuesday NAHB small business optimism index, 3 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, March CPI, March Treasury budget deficit, 10 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, March PPI, 30 year bond auction. Friday March retail sales, March import and export prices, March Industrial production, and cap utilization.

This Week the 10 year note yield down 8 bps, the 2 year note -7 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon -22 bp. The DJIA +211, NASDAQ -134, S&P -4. Gold +$35.00, crude oil +$4.94. Dollar index +0.50, Bitcoin -538.