Chicago Fed economic index cools from October’s best reading in nearly a decade

• December 21, 2017
• realestate
• Announcements, Business & Markets, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance

A measure of national economic activity calculated at the Chicago Federal Reserve eased in November after an October surge, but leaves the less-volatile three-month average on a positive trajectory.

The Chicago Fed’s index of national economic activity cooled to a positive 0.15 last month from an upwardly revised positive 0.76 in October, the central bank branch reported Thursday.

October’s reading was the highest for the volatile index since positive 0.94 in December 2006.

The index’s less-volatile, three-month moving average improved to positive 0.41 in November from a positive 0.31 in October.

The Chicago Fed index is a weighted average of 85 economic indicators, designed so that zero represents trend growth and a three-month average below negative 0.70 suggests a recession has begun. Forty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 43 made negative contributions.

The biggest drag on the index last month was a smaller contribution from the factory sector. Other Fed data had already shown that industrial production increased a smaller 0.2% percent in November after moving up 1.2% in October.

A flurry of economic data out Thursday morning included a slight downward revision in the pace of third-quarter U.S. economic growth to an annual pace of 3.2% from a previous estimate of 3.3%. Separately, weekly data from the Labor Department showed the number of first-time jobless claims rose 20,000 to 245,000, the largest increase since early September. And the Philadelphia-area index showed factory activity picking up in December.