• October 20, 2023
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• realestate

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 96.66 (+16bps)10yr yield 4.92 Was nice to catch a break for a day, but floating into Monday hoping it continues is very risky. Next week doesn’t bring a lot of data other than Friday’s PCE inflation data. Still, markets are 100% convinced the Fed will NOT hike at the next meeting, so

• October 19, 2023
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• realestate

Rate sheets continuing to worsen today, and with lots of Fed speakers we could see reprice risk as the day goes on. Although cautiously floating to start the day is ok, I’ve given up on rates rebounding after the vicious jump we’ve seen in the last week and instead it looks like we will continue

• October 18, 2023
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• realestate

Rate sheets will continue to see rates creep higher this morning, although reprice risk on the day is low. Yesterday was a brutal day for rates, pushing them to new limits and laughing at my statement that it looked like we had peaked. Although some of the underlying variables didn’t change, and even though the

• October 17, 2023
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• realestate

10/17/23 4:47pm ETWRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 97.11 (-58bps)10yr yield 4.84 Bonds didn’t rebound today, which would have been a better sign. It’s still likely we see rates fall back a bit from here, however they could creep higher before that happens. I still think we are close to peak rates, but it wouldn’t be the first

• October 13, 2023
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• realestate

Rate sheets will be a little worse than yesterday, although they should be better than any reprices worse you saw yesterday. Reprice risk on the day is low, we should have a quiet day, but as we saw yesterday there is still always a chance of seeing bonds move more than expected. We should be

• October 12, 2023
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• realestate

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 97.94 (-67bps)10yr yield 4.71 Bonds moved much worse today than I would have expected, especially with inflation data coming in as forecast with a decent core number. We can point to some sectors of inflation that could be partly to blame, however, it is more likely this is just normal movement. If

• October 11, 2023
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• realestate

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 98.91 (+39bps)10yr yield 4.57 Mortgage bonds continue to improve, setting up tomorrow to have better rates. We could see some volatility when the CPI data comes out at 8:30am ET, but overall it is unlikely we see rates start moving higher again. Unless worried about tomorrow, loans should continue floating. Rate sheets

• October 10, 2023
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• realestate

Rate sheets will rebound this morning from Friday’s brutal reaction to the jobs data, unfortunately rates being helped by the conflict/war in the Gaza strip/Israel. Reprice risk today is low, it is unlikely we see bonds give back the current gains. We might have seen a shift in sentiment this week anyway, had there not

• October 31, 2023
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• realestate

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• October 6, 2023
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• realestate

10/06/23 4:30pm ET WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 97.63 (-33bps)10yr yield: 4.80 Mortgage bond recovered quite a bit from worst levels, but the 10yr yield points to where rates will hold. Lots of reprices better, but I would risk floating into next week. Monday is Columbus Day, bond market closed, no text/email. There is risk to floating,