For the week of March 2, 2026 — Vol. 24, Issue 9

A Look Into the Markets

The market narrative this week was a mix of geopolitics, improving sentiment, and a technical inflection point for bonds. The result? Mortgage rates are hovering near some of the best levels we’ve seen in years, and the next move could be meaningful.

But what I really want to know is: are you gonna go my way? And I’ve got to, got to know.” Are You Gonna Go My Way by Lenny Kravitz.

Housing & Washington

In the State of the Union, affordability and housing supply took center stage. There was clear acknowledgment that housing affordability is an enormous issue and that measures are being taken to improve it this year and into the future.

U.S. & Iran Uncertainty

Tensions involving Iran recently pushed oil prices higher on fears of escalation. Higher prices can translate into inflation pressure. However, this week brought some optimism that a deal or agreement could materialize before another strike occurs. That helped stabilize energy markets, and in turn, helped bonds/rates.

Consumer Confidence: “Less Bad”

February Consumer Confidence came in higher than expected. While not robust, it was certainly “less bad” than prior readings. Confidence data tends to lag real economic shifts. If inflation continues easing and rates stabilize, further improvement in sentiment is likely in coming months.

Global Inflation Cooling

Inflation readings in both the EU and UK came in below expectations. Lower inflation increases the odds of central bank rate cuts abroad. Because the bond market is global, easing overseas often helps pull U.S. yields lower as well.

Line in the Sand

The 10-year Treasury yield is pressing against 4.00%; a level it has not sustained below in years. If it breaks and holds beneath 4.00%, and with mortgage spreads back near historical norms, mortgage rates could move to their best levels in over three years.

30-yr Mortgage Rates and 10-yr Note

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac daily average, February 26, 2026)

• Rate: ~5.98% (current average 30-year fixed rate)
• Change from previous week: down from ~6.01% (week ended February 19, 2026)
• Change year-over-year: down from ~6.76% on February 27, 2025 (Freddie Mac)

10-Year Treasury Note Yield (daily close, February 26, 2026)

• Yield: ~4.02%
• Change from previous week: modestly down from ~4.07% last week (week ended February 19, 2026)
• Change year-over-year: down from ~4.24% on February 26, 2025

Economic Calendar

Each candle represents one day of trading. As mortgage bond prices move higher, rates move lower. On the right side of the chart, mortgage bond prices continue to trade near three-year highs, translating to three-year lows in mortgage rates.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.00% Mortgage Bond (Friday February 27, 2026)

Looking Ahead

February’s Jobs Report is the main event. January showed solid private sector job growth. Markets want to know: was that strength a one-off or the start of a trend?

Next Friday, Fed officials enter their March 7–19 “quiet period,” meaning no public commentary on policy. So, during this time, market movements will come from the data, rather than Fed speeches.

Economic Calendar for the Week of March 2nd  – March 6th

The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.