In This Issue
Last Week in Review: Retail Sales were in positive territory in September while consumer and wholesale inflation ticked up.
Forecast for the Week: Regional manufacturing and housing data dominate the week.
View: Maintain your credibility after an email oops.
Last Week in Review
“Oh what a price I had to pay.” Fats Domino. Consumers weren’t afraid to spend in September after holding back in August.
Folks were spending in September, according to the most recent Retail Sales report issued by the Commerce Department. This was welcome news, as consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Sales were up 1.6 percent from August, just below expectations, and up 4.4 percent from September 2016. Increases in gas, auto and building material sales led the way due to hurricane-related boosts. When stripping out autos, sales rose a solid 1 percent in September from August.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer inflation via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.5 percent in September from August, though this was softer than expected. However, the more closely watched Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, was up just a meager 0.1 percent in September. This left year-over-year Core CPI at 1.7 percent for the fifth month in a row, meaning it still remains below the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0 percent.
Wholesale inflation also ticked up in September as energy prices rose following Hurricane Harvey. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4 percent from August, in line with estimates, while annual PPI jumped 2.6 percent, the biggest gain since February 2012. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose 0.2 percent as expected from August to September, while the annual Core PPI was up 2.1 percent.
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes from August revealed the Fed said the economy is strong enough to withstand an increase to the Fed Funds Rate later this year. This is the rate banks lend to one another overnight. However, the Fed will be closely watching inflation readings and other key economic reports in the coming weeks and months, and it remains to be seen if any data will impact this decision.
At this time, home loan rates remain historically attractive.
If you or someone you know has questions about home financing or home loan rates please contact me. I’d be happy to help.
Forecast for the Week
Manufacturing and housing data dominate the week.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bond prices got a boost in the second half of the week. Home loan rates remain near historic lows.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 13, 2017)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
5 Ways to Deal With an Email “Oops”
Unfortunately, there are many ways email can go wrong in either a single communication or a full-database send. Web links can be broken, a test email can be sent by mistake or information might simply be incorrect. In any case, you’ll want to act fast but don’t panic. Follow these best practices for dealing with an email “oops.”
Limit the problem if possible. Once an error is discovered, determine if the send can be paused or stopped, so it doesn’t reach an entire database. If a link is incorrect, determine if the destination link can be changed on the website or on social media to match the email link, so recipients still get to the correct page without having to notify them of the error.
Find a typo or spelling error in your email? Review the severity of the error to determine if a resend is warranted. For example, was a phone number transposed, which would make it difficult for the recipient to reach you?
Craft your apology. Don’t simply correct the email and resend a new version without explanation. Set the tone of your apology based on your relationship with your audience as well as the severity of the error. If a mistake is relatively minor, use light humor. For mistakes that seriously damage your credibility, offer reassurances of the steps you are taking to ensure the mistake doesn’t happen again.
Use the subject line to acknowledge the error. There are many subject line samples that can address most situations. For example:
Avoid future mistakes by developing an email checklist everyone can follow to ensure consistent success.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 16 – October 20
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
As your mortgage professional, I am providing you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
Vantage Production, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Vantage Production, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
Your Real Estate Life with Mike Harris
Sunday Oct 22, 2017 at 7:00 am
CalBRE #01870497 | WA #CL-3189
Loans are made or arranged pursuant to a Department of Business Oversight California Finance Lenders License #603E936 NMLS #3189