November 17, 2022 – Economic News

  • November 17, 2022
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Domestic Flavor: Taking it to the House: October Building Permits were higher than expected, 1.526M vs. est. of 1.512M. Housing Starts also beat to the upside, 1.425M vs. est. of 1.410M. But both were lower than the annualized pace of September. On the real housing market side of things, SFR Building Permits dropped for the

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November 16, 2022 – Economic News

  • November 16, 2022
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Domestic Flavor: Taking it to the House: Weekly Mortgage Applications were actually up 2.7% thanks to a nice bump in Purchase Applications of 4.4%. Refinance Applications continued their free-fall with another -1.6% decline. The November NAHB Housing Market Index was dismal at 33 vs. est. of 36 Retail Sales: The Headline October Retail Sales were

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November 15, 2022 – Economic Results

  • November 15, 2022
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Rosie the Riveter: We got a welcome upside surprise in the NY Fed District as their Nov Empire State Manufacturing Index was back in positive territory for the first time since July. It came in at +4.5 vs. est. of -5.0 Inflation Nation: October headline Producer Price Index (final demand) was much lighter than expected,

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Turning the Corner

  • November 15, 2022
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Monetary policy has a lag. Just because we get an inflation report that indicates we have turned the corner does not mean the journey is close to an end.  I believe Powell has that “old-time inflation religion.” But there are several paths to his goal. One is the band aid approach of 75 basis points

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Good things to like in that CPI data…

  • November 12, 2022
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“The CPI news on Thursday caused the largest single-day bond rally I have ever seen in my career, as the 10-year bond yield fell a stunning 33 basis points (down to 3.81%). What was that CPI news? “The headline rate year over year was +7.7% whereas in September it was +8.2%. “The core rate was

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Record Single Day Drop in Rates After Inflation Comes in Cooler

  • November 13, 2022
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By: Matthew Graham Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two key inflation reports in the US.  PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the other big index, but because CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier, it gets almost all

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Inflation holds grip on US economy in October as prices remain stubbornly high

  • November 10, 2022
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Inflation continued to run near a multi-decade high in October as persistent prices squeezed millions of U.S. households and small businesses. The Labor Department said Thursday that the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.4% in October from the previous month. Prices climbed

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October jobs report solid making Fed’s inflation fight harder

  • November 8, 2022
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Hiring in the U.S. remained solid in October, presenting challenges for the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. Employers added 261,000 nonfarm jobs, more than expected and in line with the previous month’s 263,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 3.7%, up from 3.5% in September. Hourly pay remained brisk rising at 4.7% year over year, matching

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Fed Meeting Results – November 2, 2023

  • November 7, 2022
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Powell doesn’t see wage-price spiral or evidence of softening in labor market Fed Chair Jerome Powell says it will take some time for inflation to come down. Powell said the labor market remains out of balance with demand exceeding supply and households still having cash saved up from the COVID-19 pandemic. “The broader picture is

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U.S. September PCE price index shows modest inflation relief

  • October 30, 2022
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U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in September, while underlying inflation pressures continued to bubble, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time this year. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department

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