September ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) stronger than expected

  • October 4, 2017
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September ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) hit 59.8 vs. estimates of 55.5 This is a strong reading considering anything above 50 is expansionary and the Services sector accounts for more than 2/3 of our economic output.  This is very negative for bonds and interest rate pricing.

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Private-sector job growth slows in September, ADP says

  • October 4, 2017
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Private-sector employment slowed in September as firms added 135,000 jobs ADP reported Wednesday. The gain was close to estimates which had forecast a September gain of 140,000 jobs, compared with an original reported increase of 237,000 for August. On Wednesday, ADP revised August’s gain to 228,000.

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Fed’s Kashkari prefers no more rate hikes until inflation hits 2% target

  • October 2, 2017
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Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashari on Monday openly disagreed with Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen by urging the central bank not to raise interest rates again until inflation hits the central bank’s 2% annual target. “My preference would be not to raise rates again until we actually hit 2% core PCE inflation on a 12- month

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Construction spending strengthens in August, led by rebound in public sector outlays

  • October 2, 2017
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Spending increased 0.5% during the month, and stood 2.5% higher than a year ago. Outlays were at a seasonally adjusted annual $1.22 trillion rate in August, while July’s initial tally was revised up to $1.212 trillion. The median forecast among economists surveyed by was for a 0.4% increase.

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Fewer auto sales dent consumer spending in August, inflation still weak, PCE shows

  • September 29, 2017
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Consumer spending rose 0.1% in August. If adjusted for inflation, however, spending fell for the first time since January. Personal income climbed 0.2%, above the 0.1% forecast. The savings rate was flat at 3.6%. The PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in August. The closely followed “core” rate that strips out

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Hurricanes inflate U.S. weekly jobless claims

  • September 28, 2017
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Initial U.S. jobless claims, a tool to measure layoffs, rose by 12,000 to 272,000 in the seven days stretching from Sept. 17 to Sept. 23.

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US economic recovery ramps up as 2Q GDP hits 3.1%

  • September 28, 2017
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The U.S. economy grew a bit faster than previously estimated in the second quarter, recording its quickest pace in more than two years.

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Inflation Is No Mystery to the Bond Market

  • September 28, 2017
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The Federal Reserve and other central banks have been on a quest since 2012 to get inflation back up to levels they deem appropriate for a stable, growing economy. There have been many setbacks along the way, leaving central bankers stumped, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen saying the slowdown in inflation has been a “mystery.”

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Treasurys extend selloff as Trump’s tax plan weighs on government bonds

  • September 28, 2017
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In the past, bond investors have been skeptical of prospects for tax legislation. But with more concrete details unveiled, Treasurys have seen selling pressure. Nonetheless, analysts feel there are plenty of stumbling blocks that could serve as roadblocks.

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Durable-goods orders jump 1.7% in August

  • September 27, 2017
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Durable-goods orders climbed 1.7% last month, the government said Wednesday. Economists polled had forecast a 1% gain. The increase stemmed mainly from a big batch of orders for commercial aircraft. Bookings surged 45%. Demand was higher for most other manufactured goods, but orders grew at a smaller pace. Orders minus transportation edged up 0.2%. A

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