• October 5, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 98.02 (+19bps)10yr yield: 4.71 Thankfully a quiet day. Some may choose to risk floating into tomorrow, but the return will be minimal. Jobs data comes out ahead of pricing, and we could see volatility. Rate sheets this morning shouldn’t be too different than yesterday. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, there’s

• October 4, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 97.84 (+37bps)10yr yield: 4.74 Alls well that ends well? Some late day repricing better, however, still nothing to get too excited about. Rates may drift a little bit lower from here, but it won’t be much, advice remains to lock in, despite potential for possible improvement tomorrow. Tomorrow we get jobless claims

• October 3, 2023
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Rates continuing to creep higher (as expected) with no clear end in sight. I can’t make this any clearer than I have recently – give up all hope of rates falling from here. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, although bonds have improved from the worst levels, we could see them turn tail and

• October 2, 2023
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Rate sheets will be much worse than Friday AM, as bonds continue to fall after a short lived mini rally. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, despite an already weak start we could see bonds continue to worsen which would put lenders in a position to reprice worse. Although it could be argued that

• September 29, 2023
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Inflation Nation: The August Headline PCE increased by 0.4% on a MOM basis which is DOUBLE the increase in July but it was lower than market expectations of 0.5%. YOY, it was up 3.5% which matched expectations. Core PCE (ex food and energy) increased by 0.1% which was less than market expectations of 0.2%. YOY, it

• September 28, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 98.70 (+30bps)10yr yield: 4.58 Bonds had a strong recovery today on some dovish Fed member comments and weak consumer spending data, mainly a correction from being over sold. This is not a reversal, and if you saw reprices better today you should take them, it’s not likely gains continue much tomorrow. After

• September 25, 2023
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Rates will continue to test the high water mark, and reprice risk today is low. The outlook is that rates will hold near the highs or even creep higher, with zero chance that we see a significant drop in rates anytime soon (“significant”, to me,  means .25% or more). Treasury yields continue to climb, and

• September 22, 2023
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Rate sheets this morning likely to be similar or slightly better than yesterday, and reprice risk on the day is moderate. Bonds showing some signs of recovery this morning, but nothing to get too excited about. Rates have quickly moved up to match this years highest levels already after the Fed meeting, but I think

• September 21, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 99.03 (-30bps)10yr yield: 4.50 The good news is that bonds didn’t get much worse than this mornings levels, the bad news is that they didn’t improve either (and are not likely too). I think it will get worse before it gets , so am still in a lock bias, although I do

• September 20, 2023
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Rate sheets this morning likely to be similar to yesterday, ahead of what is likely to be a lively afternoon for bonds. Reprice risk on the day is high, although we’ll have to wait for the dust to settle before we get a clearer picture of where rates are headed from here. I believe the likelihood