Rates, Mortgage App Volume Improve Heading into Holiday Season

  • November 28, 2022
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Mortgage application volume increased for the second consecutive week as interest rates continued to decline. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, was 2.2 percent higher during the week ending November 18 than the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis and up 10 percent before adjustment.

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U.S. Treasury

  • November 25, 2022
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This year was one of the worst for bonds in history. While short-dated U.S. Treasury losses were limited to less than 10%, the 23% drop in annual returns of the 10-year note through last month was – according to Bank of America – the worst since the turbulent infancy of 1788; you must go back

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Stocks end higher after Fed signals slower rate hike pace

  • November 23, 2022
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All three of the major U.S. averages rose on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting showed policymakers foresee a slowing of future rate hikes. Consumer discretionary names led the gains while energy lagged after oil fell 3.7% to $77.94 per barrel.

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November 22, 2022 – Economic News

  • November 22, 2022
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Rosie the Riveter: The November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index showed contraction at -9 vs. est. of -1 The Talking Fed: Today we hear from Loretta Mester., Esther George and James Bullard. Treasury Dump: We get the last auction of the week with today’s 1:00 7 year note auction. Interest rates fractionally better this morning in

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November 21, 2022 – Economic News

  • November 21, 2022
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MBS OVERVIEW Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week: 1) Central Bank Palooza, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Domestic Flavor 1) Central Bank Palooza: We will get key interest rate decisions from China and New Zealand. NZ is expected to raise their

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November 17, 2022 – Economic News

  • November 17, 2022
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Domestic Flavor: Taking it to the House: October Building Permits were higher than expected, 1.526M vs. est. of 1.512M. Housing Starts also beat to the upside, 1.425M vs. est. of 1.410M. But both were lower than the annualized pace of September. On the real housing market side of things, SFR Building Permits dropped for the

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November 16, 2022 – Economic News

  • November 16, 2022
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Domestic Flavor: Taking it to the House: Weekly Mortgage Applications were actually up 2.7% thanks to a nice bump in Purchase Applications of 4.4%. Refinance Applications continued their free-fall with another -1.6% decline. The November NAHB Housing Market Index was dismal at 33 vs. est. of 36 Retail Sales: The Headline October Retail Sales were

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Turning the Corner

  • November 15, 2022
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Monetary policy has a lag. Just because we get an inflation report that indicates we have turned the corner does not mean the journey is close to an end.  I believe Powell has that “old-time inflation religion.” But there are several paths to his goal. One is the band aid approach of 75 basis points

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Good things to like in that CPI data…

  • November 12, 2022
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“The CPI news on Thursday caused the largest single-day bond rally I have ever seen in my career, as the 10-year bond yield fell a stunning 33 basis points (down to 3.81%). What was that CPI news? “The headline rate year over year was +7.7% whereas in September it was +8.2%. “The core rate was

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Record Single Day Drop in Rates After Inflation Comes in Cooler

  • November 13, 2022
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By: Matthew Graham Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two key inflation reports in the US.  PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the other big index, but because CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier, it gets almost all

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